The biggest offseason questions for the Atlanta Falcons
Things are relatively quiet right now in the NFL, but this might be the most important period for the future of the Falcons
The Super Bowl is over, and the NFL faces a lull period before free agency kicks off at the start of the new league year.
Now the real work begins.
The Atlanta Falcons have been determining their path for the future over the last several weeks, but that plan will really be put into place between now and the NFL Draft in April. Only the people up in Flowery Branch – and Arthur Blank, of course – have a good idea of what that plan looks like, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the following questions weren’t a focal point of building it.
What is achievable in 2021, 2022 and 2023?
There may be some more pressing matters of immediate concern for the organization, but this is the root question that feeds into everything else. Whether or not leadership believes there is enough talent in place to truly compete this fall will inform all decisions made this offseason.
Regardless of their immediate goals in 2021, Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot have been tasked with developing plans that ultimately lead to sustained long-term success. That likely means a fair amount of change is coming sooner rather than later, the only question is how much change?
Blank has expressed confidence that Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will remain in Atlanta this fall, but will the Falcons try to maximize the talent around their two offensive stars for a run at the playoffs this fall or begin to pivot towards the future. An all-in approach for 2021 could continue to limit their roster flexibility moving forward because it would likely require some contract restructurings with higher cap hits in future years to free up enough capital to make moves for this fall.
While the cap situation (more on that in a bit) is made direr because of Matt Ryan’s and Julio Jones’ high cap figures, they become more tenable in 2022. It brooks no argument that Atlanta is a better team with those two All-Pros on the roster, so the Falcons could make some short-term decisions with their quarterback and star receiver in mind, but they may also start laying the foundation for a greater roster transition next year when it’s more financially feasible.
That’s just one example, but it demonstrates the juggling act that all NFL teams must maintain. Now, we go to the harder part – throwing way more balls into the air.
How do they decide to manage a tight cap situation?
Jones and Ryan have been the focal point of conversation about Atlanta’s roster – and for good reason – but they are far from the only factors involved. The Falcons’ attempts to maximize its window following the 2016 season is made apparent when looking at the contracts doled out in that time. The organization wanted to keep the gang together after a Super Bowl run, and now the bill is coming due.
While websites such as Spotrac and Over The Cap aren’t 100 percent accurate, they provide the best estimation for fans about a team’s salary cap situation. A look at those sites shows just what Atlanta is up against. The Falcons have five players who will have cap hits of over $18 million in 2021, led by Ryan’s nearly $41 million, which is the second biggest in the NFL.
For comparison, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – fresh off a Super Bowl win – will have only Tom Brady count for more than $18 million against the cap next season. Atlanta’s five most expensive players (Ryan, Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jake Matthews and Dante Fowler) count for a whopping 66.15 percent of the team’s cap total, the highest total in the league. Again, for comparison, that is roughly 10 percent more than the combined cap percentage of the top five Kansas City Chiefs players, who just played in their second-straight Super Bowl.
What makes the situation more daunting is the high amount of dead cap money tied to those players, making it difficult to offload those high salary cap numbers. Traditionally, teams could convert a portion of base salary into a signing bonus, which is prorated throughout the life of the contract, for a short-term solution. But doing so would continue to kick the can down the road for a franchise with aging stars and potentially looking to go in a new direction.
There will be some cap casualties to come this offseason – Ricardo Allen, James Carpenter and Allen Bailey unfortunately make the most sense in that regard – and there will be some salary restructures – possibly Jarrett and Deion Jones fit that category. Depending on what the league sets the cap at for 2021, though, all of that work could be just to get Atlanta below that mark. It will still leave them with very little operating room to make moves this offseason.
What can they do in free agency?
Unless they’ve got an ace up their sleeve with the salary cap, the Falcons may once again be shopping in the bargain section in free agency for all of the reasons listed above. They will still need to field a 53-man roster, but it appears they won’t have a big budget to work with.
That isn’t necessarily the worst thing. Again, it all circles back around to the first section of this article. This season may be more about building for 2022 and 2023 than competing in 2021. If that is the case, there’s a clear approach for the organization in free agency.
As Smith begins to implement his own culture in Atlanta, it would be wise to bring in veteran players on short-term deals to help hammer home a new mindset. The Falcons already have a veteran roster in place, but they have some talented young players to build around and will need to continue to rely heavily on their draft classes.
In this sense, having veterans in place who understand their roles are more about showing those young players how to conduct themselves in the NFL both on the field and in the locker room may have the biggest impact on the future. Fortunately, those types of players can also be found relatively cheaply on the open market.
What’s the play at No. 4?
Probably the biggest asset for the Falcons this offseason is their No. 4 draft pick. Not since 2008 has Atlanta had a higher draft pick, and there are a few distinct approaches the team can take in April.
The first, and most discussed, is to use this opportunity to find the quarterback of the future. Atlanta selected Matt Ryan in that aforementioned 2008 NFL Draft, and this is one of the more quarterback-heavy drafts in a while. As many as five quarterbacks could be selected on the first night of the draft, and it’s possible the first four players off the board all come from that position.
If the Falcons do pull the trigger on a quarterback, it will signal that the franchise is ready to head in a new direction. With Ryan on the roster, the Falcons could afford to take things slow with their rookie quarterback, but they could still part ways with the former NFL MVP if the right offer came along. A factor in this draft decision may also be the talent at quarterback in future drafts. If the Falcons’ advanced scouting doesn’t see a great pool of players at the position in the coming years, they may not want to pass up this opportunity.
The second option is to sit at four and take the best player available. Fontenot said that would be the approach he’d like the team to take while he’s general manager, and if three quarterbacks go off the board before Atlanta picks, it will have its choice of all remaining positions. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell would be a popular candidate at that spot, but linebacker Micah Parsons and a trio of very talented receivers – Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle – are considered among the top prospects in this class.
Lastly, the Falcons could find a trade partner and move back in the first round to add to their number of overall picks in the draft. That could be the wisest strategy to take to infuse new life into the roster, and Atlanta would still be selecting highly in each subsequent round. If there are some top quarterbacks still available at No. 4, the Falcons could see a bidding war kick up and net themselves a good haul.
Where does Atlanta focus its roster efforts?
Smith and his staff have maintained that they will build their scheme around the players on Atlanta’s roster. As they go about molding that roster to their liking, though, what is the focus?
Will the Falcons seek to add the most talent they can, regardless of position? Will they take a more targeted approach at specific position groups they feel they need to improve? Perhaps they consider the defense a greater priority because of Dean Pees’s desire to be multiple with that unit and the current players on the roster were brought to Atlanta with a very specific scheme in mind.
The Falcons could also desire to boost up one side of the ball and make that the identity of the team in 2021 while the other side comes along a bit more slowly. In that scenario, it would make sense for Smith to try and build an explosive offense to maximize Ryan, Jones and Ridley – perhaps even adding one of those top receivers in the draft – and hoping to win as many shootouts as possible.
That approach hasn’t really worked for Atlanta in recent years, but this is a new regime, and they may consider that is the best way to win in the short term with the roster currently in place.
We’ll get answers to all of these questions in the coming months, but they are undoubtedly already being considered within the organization. That fact alone makes this relatively quiet period in the NFL a vital one for the Falcons.