Breaking down a few Falcons' salary cap possibilities
The NFL's decision for the 2021 salary cap could have a drastic impact on Atlanta's offseason
Last week, the NFL sent a memo to teams stating that the salary cap for the 2021 season would be no lower than $180 million. The previous floor for the salary cap was set at $175 million, so this indicates a step in the right direction, but it’s a safe bet that many teams hope the actual cap will still be higher.
The Atlanta Falcons should count themselves among those teams.
Spotrac currently lists the Falcons’ cap totals at $199,055,430, and Over The Cap puts the Falcons’ total for 2021 at $202,564,495. The exact totals are something only the team, league and NFLPA would know, but for the purposes of this exercise, we’ll just go with $200 million as a rough estimation of where Atlanta stands right now.
Before taking a look at Atlanta’s situation in various salary cap situations, it’s also important to mention that the NFLPA recently released the amount of cap carryover each team would have from the 2020 season. The Falcons will have $1.8 million in extra cap space in 2021, which is the third-least in the NFL. Once again, not a good situation cap-wise for the Falcons.
We already know the Falcons are in a period of transition. The only question now is, how great of a transition? Atlanta parted ways with Ricardo Allen and Allen Bailey last week to free up some money, but more moves are sure to be coming. How many depends on what the salary cap will be for 2021, so let’s go through a few possibilities.
$180 million salary cap
If the league does set the 2021 salary cap at the minimum, the Falcons will have some serious work to do. Even with the savings from Allen and Bailey, Atlanta would need to free up around another $20 million just to be compliant with league rules.
In this scenario, players like James Carpenter or Tyeler Davison – who each performed well for Atlanta last season – may find themselves on the financial chopping block. But that would likely only be the beginning. What’s difficult for the Falcons, though, is that there really aren’t any big savings to be found elsewhere, barring a couple of post-June 1 cuts.
The team would likely turn to a few notable veterans for restructuring or extension negotiations. Still, all of this would just be to get the Falcons under the new salary cap. They would probably have pennies to spend in free agency and would still need to sign their draft class.
$185 million salary cap
I don’t think much would change under this scenario from up above, but there would be a little more breathing room. The same players may get shown the door and restructurings still probably take place.
The key difference here is that there is a tiny bit more flexibility in free agency to add a piece or two, or perhaps the team is able to afford a player on the roster currently that otherwise may have been released.
$190 million salary cap
This is where there starts to be a bit more light at the end of the tunnel. It wouldn’t be too difficult to shed an additional $10 million to become compliant with this salary cap, and then everything from there is just to increase the cap cushion.
Atlanta likely isn’t suddenly a big player in free agency at this point, but it might be able to target a couple of key players it likes and have the capital to be competitive with its offer. The Falcons may not even need a big roster purge in this situation, at least not solely for financial reasons. The new staff in Atlanta could afford to be a bit more selective in how to shape the team.
$195 million salary cap
Based on speculation, it would seem pretty unlikely that this is the number the NFL lands on. It would only be a very small reduction from the $198 million cap in 2020, but a massive break for Atlanta. The Falcons would really be able to operate from a solid financial foundation.
It still probably doesn’t make them huge players in free agency, but it would set them up much better for the future. They would still get a large amount of cap relief from Matt Ryan’s cap hit going down in 2022, and not have to completely strip down the roster for the 2021 season just to save the money. This salary cap doesn’t make Atlanta an immediate contender this fall, but it would allow them to keep some talent and potentially add a bit more.