The pros and cons of various Falcons draft scenarios
Weighing Atlanta's options in the first round of this year's NFL Draft
Barring a mesmerizing bit of financial finagling by the Falcons, they aren’t expected to be major players in the free agency market this offseason. That makes the NFL Draft the next major milestone for the organization.
Atlanta currently holds the No. 4 pick in the draft, which puts it in an excellent spot to grab a franchise-changing player; the Falcons did just that in 2008 when they selected Matt Ryan with the third pick. It also means that all options are open for Atlanta.
"There are so many different scenarios," Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said in a recent press conference. "There are going to be some really good players there at No. 4. We can move up, and we can move down and acquire more picks. There's just a lot of different scenarios to really go through. It's a prime spot to be in."
It's expected to be a quarterback-heavy first round in this year’s draft. While the Falcons could very well look to add their quarterback of the future, they are also the first team in the first round with an established player at the position. This makes it likely that they will be fielding a lot of calls from teams who need to grab a quarterback and want to move up to do so.
So, with about two months to go until the draft, let’s go over some of the main scenarios in play for Atlanta.
Stay at No. 4 and take a quarterback
This has been the most discussed option for the Falcons thus far. There’s no doubt that this is one of the most talented groups of quarterbacks to come out in the draft in quite a while. Although Atlanta doesn’t necessarily need a quarterback right now, Ryan will be 36 when the 2021 season starts and a talented rookie signal-caller is one of the most valuable things in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence is widely expected to be the first player taken, so let’s go ahead and assume he’s off the board at four. It will likely come down to BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance when the Falcons are on the clock. Perhaps all three are still available, or perhaps it’s down to only one top-tier quarterback remaining.
There are things to like about all three, and there are question marks for each player as well. Ultimately, it will come down to how Fontenot and his staff evaluate the quarterbacks and the traits coach Arthur Smith is looking for with his offense. Here are the pros and cons for this pick:
Pros: Have a clear future option at the quarterback position and select that player in a draft where quarterback is arguably the top position group. Get a bit of a salary cap reset for the future by having a quarterback on a rookie contract with a fifth-year option. Each of the top four quarterbacks possesses the athletic traits that align with the way the game is played in 2021. The player would have an opportunity to sit and learn for a year while watching a former league MVP at the position.
Cons: Ryan is likely still the starter this fall, which means the Falcons would be using their top-five pick on a backup. This would also prevent them from addressing another need on the roster with a potential game-changing player. It could also be detrimental to the organization’s relationship with Ryan and signal to other key players on the roster that leadership is focused more on the future than the present.
Trade back in the first round
This option seems to be immensely popular with a segment of the Falcons’ fan base, and it makes sense for a number of reasons. Depending on where the Falcons move in the first round, they could still land a quarterback for the future, and they would accumulate more draft picks, which they will need to fill out a roster that could be pretty bare.
Using the NFL trade value chart for the draft, we can get a bit of an idea about what the Falcons could get in return for trading back to various spots. It’s possible that because a quarterback is in play here that Atlanta would get a bit more in return for its No. 4 pick, which is worth 1,800 points, but we’ll still stick closely to the trade value chart.
Let’s say the Falcons only move back a couple of spots and trades with Philadelphia at No. 6 (1,600 points) or Carolina at No. 8 (1,400 points). Because those picks also have a fairly high value, Atlanta is likely only getting back a second-round pick from Carolina (510 points) – or possibly a third-round pick this year and next year – and just a third-round pick from Philadelphia (245 points).
If Atlanta moves closer to the middle of the first round, say trading with the 49ers at No. 12 (1,200 points) or the Patriots at No. 15 (1,050 points), it could net multiple second-round picks or several Day 3 picks in return. Say a team like Pittsburgh wants to make a major jump up from No. 24 (740 points) to No. 4, the Falcons could land a haul similar to what the Browns got in the Julio Jones deal, which was five draft picks, including Atlanta’s first-round pick the following year.
Pros: The Falcons would be able to draft a large number of players to help flesh out a roster that could be stripped for financial reasons. Along those same lines, those rookies would be much more cost-effective in the near future and allow Atlanta to use free agency to reshape the roster under a new coaching staff. The draft is often seen as a bit of a crapshoot, even with so much scouting involved, so a high number of picks would increase the chances Atlanta finds future starters.
Cons: Early reviews are that this draft isn’t as talented at a number of positions in the first round. Giving up the No. 4 pick could be the Falcons are passing on one of the few truly elite players in this draft. They could also end up missing out on a top quarterback. Would they want to enable another team – possibly one in their conference – to take a quarterback?
Stay put and take the best player available
We already know this is how Fontenot prepares to approach drafts as general manager:
"In the draft, you're going to take the best player," he said in his introductory press conference. "You can't be afraid to continue [to add] at every position. There's not a position that you're going to say, 'Oh, we're good there, we're not going to draft there this year.' That's just what I believe. … We're never going to be afraid to take a player at any position and build a strength."
If there is a run on quarterbacks with the first three picks, that means the Falcons would be in position to add the best player at every other position in the draft. That’s not a bad spot to be in. Some of the top guys who would be on the board in that scenario: Offensive tackle Penei Sewell, wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, linebacker Micah Parsons and tight end Kyle Pitts.
Pros: There’s still an uphill battle for the Falcons to return to the playoffs, and they can afford to be a little patient and build this roster at all positions. By taking the top player at a spot other than quarterback, they will boost the overall strength of their roster. This would also help them compete sooner rather than later and maximize what they have left with Julio Jones and Matt Ryan.
Cons: Atlanta would obviously not land a quarterback in this scenario, nor would they gain extra draft capital to use on other spots of the roster. They would land a talented player, but none of the positions of strength early in the first round aligns with a major hole on the roster. They would be adding talent, but not at a position with a huge talent gap.
Think I missed a scenario or overlooked a pro or con? Leave a comment and let me know!
I think trading back and getting either Trey Lance or Mac Jones, while accumulating some Day 2 picks would be the ideal scenario. Thanks for the great stuff, Will