The Draft Board: A loaded first-round QB group is igniting debate
Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each quarterback projected to go in the first round of the NFL Draft
Editor’s note: In the lead-up to the NFL Draft, I’ll be previewing each position to provide a sense of top-end talent and overall depth.
The 2021 NFL Draft is believed to feature one of the most talented and accomplished groups of quarterbacks to come out in one class in quite some time. The position has drawn a lot of attention as the draft nears and some experts speculate that as many as five quarterbacks could go in the first round.
If that turns out to be the case, it will match the 2018 draft for the second-most quarterbacks taken in the first round in NFL history. Three of the first-round quarterbacks from 2018 – Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson – led their teams to the postseason in 2020. Jackson was named the NFL MVP in 2019, and Allen was in the running for the same award this past fall.
On paper, this group of quarterbacks has the talent to accomplish similar feats, but there are also innumerable variables in play, starting with where they end up. Trevor Lawrence is nearly unanimously believed to go No. 1; Zach Wilson has picked up momentum as the quarterback most likely to go No. 2.
Justin Fields and Trey Lance seem to most to be in the next tier of quarterbacks and could either go in the top 5 or fall out of the top 10. Mac Jones is emerging as the wild card. After leading Alabama to a national championship, he’s rumored to be moving up draft boards because of his accuracy and intangible leadership skills.
To kick off the first edition of The Draft Board, I’ll share what I’ve seen on film from each of these five quarterback prospects.
Trevor Lawrence – Clemson
3-year starter (38-2 record)
Notable: Led Clemson to 2018 national title, finished second in 2020 Heisman Trophy vote
College stats:
Passing: 66.6% completion rate – 10,098 yds – 90 TDs – 17 INTs
Rushing: 231 attempts – 943 yds – 18 TDs
What I like
Rare mix of talent and production. Lawrence entered college as the No. 1 recruit in the 2018 class, and he’s lived up to every bit of expectation. He’s never once lost in the regular season at Clemson, and he seemingly improved with each successive year. Physically, he checks all of the boxes. He’s got a strong arm that allows him to make every throw needed at the NFL level. He’s accurate and can anticipate when a receiver is coming open or throw a receiver open when needed. He has great pocket awareness to make the correct read under pressure, and he also possesses uncommon speed for someone his size to run away from linebackers at the second level.
The thing I like most about Lawrence, and the reason why I think he’ll continue to meet expectations, is his footwork. He is as polished and solid in the pocket as anyone I’ve seen in a while. He gets his feet set, doesn’t make unnecessary hitches and everything begins with his feet and his hips. The best throwers do that, and Lawrence is already a master at it.
What I don’t like
Not much. None of the questions about his scheme or surrounding talent can be answered now, so why bother? He does tend to miss high (when he does miss), which could lead to some turnovers at the next level, and he does string out plays probably longer than he should. Other than that, it’s no wonder why Lawrence is considered a generational prospect.
Player comparison: Bigger, faster John Elway
Zach Wilson – BYU
3-year starter (19-9 record)
Notable: Led BYU to an 11-1 record as a junior in 2020
Career stats:
Passing: 67.6% completion rate – 7,652 yds – 56 TDs – 15 INTs
Rushing: 212 attempts – 642 yds – 15 TDs
What I like
Wilson has the play-making ability NFL teams covet. Possessing a live arm that looks closer to Corey Seager than a traditional quarterback, Wilson can get the ball out from virtually any arm angle. While that ability has earned high praise, he’s very adept at making plays from within the pocket as well. He shows a good feel for maneuvering in the pocket and putting his linemen in good position to protect him. Wilson also has terrific arm strength and can rip the ball into a tight window or float it over a second-level defender. He was PFF’s second-highest graded quarterback in 2020 – ahead of everyone else on this list – and is also a threat to run the ball.
What I don’t like
It’s tough to tell how much stock to put into his big jump from 2019 to 2020, but NFL teams seem more willing to buy into that kind of growth more than ever before. Because Wilson is such a playmaker and looks like the best player on the field for most games, he has a tendency to get a little cuter with the ball than I’d like him to be. That’s not to say he doesn’t pull off some of those plays – and some might like that bravado – but If I were scouting him, that would be something I’d talk to him about.
Player comparison: Early-years Aaron Rodgers
Justin Fields – Ohio State
2-year starter (20-2 record)
Notable: Led Ohio State to 2020 CFP National Championship game, Heisman finalist
Career stat:
Passing: 68.4% completion rate – 5,701 yds – 67 TDs – 9 INTs
Rushing: 260 attempts – 1,133 yds – 19 TDs
What I like
The complete athletic package with a great passing skillset. Fields is the rare quarterback who looks great coming off the bus and dominates when on the field. He can make every throw on the field, but he frequently looked to push the ball downfield and beat defenses over the top. He’s also the most accurate quarterback on this list over multiple seasons, and that accuracy translates whether he’s in a clean pocket or on the move. His 6-foot-3, 228-pound frame makes him an absolute chore to bring down behind the line of scrimmage, and Fields is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in this class. Fields is tough, dynamic and appears to have even more untapped upside.
What I don’t like
It’s always hard to tell with the type of scheme Fields played in just how much the quarterback was responsible for. He didn’t look to make multiple reads on a majority of the plays, playing within the decisive rhythm of the offense. For as good as Fields is in the pocket, he too often will feel pressure that isn’t there. Several have knocked Fields for his lag in going through his progressions compared to others in this class. On top of that, Fields has a tendency to make a head-scratching decision from time to time that resulted in a turnover or a negative play for his team. That can be coached out of him, but he does that more than most in this group.
Player comparison: Slimmer Daunte Culpepper
Trey Lance – North Dakota State University
1-year starter (17-0)
Notable: Led NDSU to perfect 16-0 record and championship in lone year as a starter
College stats
Passing: 65.4% completion rate – 2,947 yds – 30 TDs – 1 INT
Rushing: 192 attempts – 1,325 yds – 18 TDs
What I like
The most enticing athlete among the quarterbacks this year. Lance has been compared to Cam Newton by some, and it’s a fine comparison for someone to get a general ballpark idea of what he looks like on a football field. At this point, however, Lance should be considered a better passer than Newton was coming out of Auburn. He can be decisive when needed, throws with both touch and zip, and he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way often, as evidenced by his one career interception. On top of that, Lance has the size of a tight end and the open field moves of a running back. He’s still developing, but every tool is there for him to become a dominant player in the right offense.
What I don’t like
Lance needs to see the receiver come open before making the throw, and that just won’t happen frequently in the NFL. He needs to learn to anticipate the throwing windows to truly maximize his physical gifts. On top of that, there are still accuracy concerns to worry about with him that mostly stem from mechanics issues with his throwing motion. He’s not as polished a thrower as the first three quarterbacks on this list, but he possesses the natural talents that they do. Lance would most benefit from a year of learning, but the upside is massive.
Player comparison: Year 2 Josh Allen
Mac Jones – Alabama
1-year starter (16-1 record)
Notable: Led Alabama to a national title in 2020, named Heisman Trophy finalist
College stats:
Passing: 74.3% completion rate – 6,126 yds – 56 TDs – 7 INTs
Rushing: 54 attempts – 42 yds – 2 TDs
What I like
Great feel for the offense and impeccable short-to-intermediate accuracy. Jones proved in his lone starting season that he’s capable of not only playing within an offensive scheme but elevating that scheme to its highest possible level. His feel for defenses and where to go with the football made him one of the best passers in the league last season. If Fields is the most accurate quarterback in this class over multiple seasons, Jones is the most accurate based on a one-year sample. He operates really well from the pocket, throws with anticipation and puts the ball in a position to let his weapons make plays after the catch.
What I don’t like
While Jones can elevate an offensive scheme, it’s unclear whether he can play outside of one when things break down. Now more than ever, that’s what separates the good quarterbacks from the great quarterbacks. He’s been compared to Tom Brady because of his leadership and feel for the game, but not only is that a massive comparison, offenses are changing and going away from that archetype at the position. Jones is by far the most limited athlete of this group, and he has below-average arm strength. Moreover, his accuracy appears to dip the further he has to throw it. He can probably play well in the right scheme, but I don’t know if he can ever transcend the situation around him.
Player comparison: Jake Fromm